Spiega documentation

Article blindtest

What spiega is about

blind test

Our function can be expressed as:

$$ x_{act}(t) m_{share}(t_{d}) = y_{ref}(t) ../../f/f_{people}(t) + y_{out}(t) $$

where $x {act}$ is the number of activities, $m_{share}$ is the market share, $y_{ref}$ reference data - cachier receipts, $../../f/f_{people}$ people per receipt, $y_{out}$ people outside the shop, $t$ time, $t_{d}$ day_

reference vs reference

To check the capability of the prediction we take as reference the customer data and as activities the customer data multiplied by a random noise

reference

reference vs reference + gaussian noise, a single location might have low correlation

reference

reference vs reference + gaussian noise, overall sum neutralizes the gaussian noise

scor1

score gauss noise 50%

scor1

score gauss noise 90% no smoothing, final score on 30 days

scor_ref

score gauss noise 30%, final score on june

scor_ref

score gauss noise 20%, final score on june

day correlation mapping

We take the first 20 cilacs close to a poi and we calculate activites on daily basis.

Activities are processed with a 20km previous distance filter and we match activity chirality with the poi chirality .

6% of the total cilacs correlates over 0.6 with [reference data../../f/f_year.csv.gz).

The sum of the activities over all country is

cilac sum

no day filtering

We have to filter out bad days

cilac sum

bad day filtering

We perform a weekday correction

cilac sum

weekday correction

cilac_cor

2d correlation between cilac patterns

country adjustment

country adjustment

etl - lowcount - wday - filter - reg
00 - 04 - 22 - 30 - 41

scor new mapping

iteration of the new mapping scoring

blind test on real data

play equal_learn

test on performance on learn & play on same days

learn_play

smoothing correlates neighboring events and improves the score, june in blind test

curve blind

curve blind, june

curve blind_single2

curve blind_single2

curve blind_single

curve blind_single

learn_play

scoring on the different learning steps until blind test

learn play_randomDays

learn play_randomDays

correlation over location

correlation over locations